• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
samaneh khaksarastaneh; Teymor Mohammadi; Hamid Amadeh
Abstract
Nowadays, due to the limitation of fossil fuels, the topic of their optimal use has been given more attention than before. In the upstream literature of oil and gas economy, the word synonymous with this topic is reservoir management. In this study, selected one of the oil fields of Iranian Offshore ...
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Nowadays, due to the limitation of fossil fuels, the topic of their optimal use has been given more attention than before. In the upstream literature of oil and gas economy, the word synonymous with this topic is reservoir management. In this study, selected one of the oil fields of Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC). In the first step, by using field data, the cost function of the field is estimated by considering the environmental costs and secondary recycling costs, and in the next Nowadays, due to the limitation of fossil fuels, the topic of their optimal use has been given more attention than before. In the upstream literature of the oil and gas economy, the word synonymous with this topic is reservoir management. This study selected one of the oil fields of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC). In the first step, by using field data, the cost function of the field is estimated by considering the environmental costs and secondary recycling costs, and in the next step, the discounted profit of the field during its life under three discount rate scenarios, and it is maximized by dynamic programming method. The results of the bell curve study confirmed the production during the life of the field. Also, in the scenario of the discount rate of 5%, the harvest results from the field have been more balanced, and with the increase of the discount rate to 10 and then 20%, more harvest has been achieved in the first years of production and less harvest in the final years of productionstep, the discounted profit of the field during its life under three discount rate scenarios. and it is maximized by dynamic programming method. The results of the bell curve study confirmed the production during the life of the field. Also, in the scenario of discount rate of 5%, the harvest results from the field have been more balanced, and with the increase of the discount rate to 10 and then 20%, more harvest has been achieved in the first years of production and less harvest in the final years of production.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Hamid Amadeh; Abdolrasol Ghasemi; Hojjatollah Mirzaei; Hamid Bakhtiari
Abstract
This paper focuses on the analysis of the petrochemical products manufacturing value chain and the presentation of petrochemical products' optimal manufacturing pattern in petrochemical industries affiliates of pension funds. The case study in this research is JAM and MASJIDSOLEYMAN Petrochemical companies. ...
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This paper focuses on the analysis of the petrochemical products manufacturing value chain and the presentation of petrochemical products' optimal manufacturing pattern in petrochemical industries affiliates of pension funds. The case study in this research is JAM and MASJIDSOLEYMAN Petrochemical companies. Period of this research is 5 years. In this case study, the determiner faces paradoxical objectives simultaneously. The fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) method has been used based on the α-cut of fuzzy parameters in this research. The goal of this research is to extract the amount of products that have maximized profit and value-added and minimized risk simultaneously which face technological, market, financial, budget, legal, and national interest-related limitations. This method is often interested in the proper POSs that have finite tradeoffs between objective functions. One numerical sample has been used to show the possibility of using the said method in multi-objective optimizing issues for the production of propylene. Because of the efficiency and satisfaction of the obtained new solutions for this method, this method undoubtedly can be useful to solve the FMOLP problems. A decrease in the production of ethylene and light polyethylene and an increase in propylene and butadiene production is the most important policy recommendation of this research.
Hossein Yadegari; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Amadeh; abdorrasoul ghasemi,; hamidreza mostafaee
Abstract
The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have made its price forecast always considered by researchers, oil market participants, governments, and policymakers. Because the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, ongoing studies should be done ...
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The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have made its price forecast always considered by researchers, oil market participants, governments, and policymakers. Because the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, ongoing studies should be done to make more accurate and reliable estimates over time. In this paper, a combination of GM (1,1) and ARIMA models and a hybrid model (GM-ARIMA) for crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The Brent crude oil price data for seasonal (2015Q1-2021Q2), monthly(2020m3-2020m12), and weekly(w12-2020: w16-2021) periods were used to examine this method. The results show that based on the evaluation criteria of mean absolute error percentage (MAPE) and square mean square error (RMSE), the evaluation criteria of MAPE and RMSE in the combined GM-ARIMA model are always lower than the GM and ARIMA models alone. Therefore, the GM-ARIMA hybrid model will be able to predict more accurately than the GM and ARIMA models. Therefore, for more accurate prediction, the GM-ARIMA hybrid model can be used instead of single models.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Hamid Amadeh; shahzad broumand
Abstract
This study has decomposed affecting factors on energy consumption in the agriculture sector (MBOE) by using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to three structural effects, activity effects, and energy intensity effects during 2006-2014. Also, it's investigated the relationship between GDP growth and ...
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This study has decomposed affecting factors on energy consumption in the agriculture sector (MBOE) by using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to three structural effects, activity effects, and energy intensity effects during 2006-2014. Also, it's investigated the relationship between GDP growth and energy consumption of the agriculture sector by combining Mean Logarithmic Divisia Index with the decoupling index. The results show that energy consumption of the agriculture sector has increased during that period. Activity effect and structural effect respectively, have the most share in explaining the changes in energy consumption among the mentioned effects, and the intensity effect has a smaller role in explaining the changes in energy consumption. Additionally, the results of applying the decoupling index indicated that the agriculture sector experienced three conditions, including strong negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling during the period of study. In the agriculture sector, after activity effect, i.e., the change of total energy consumption of each sector due to increase of production, the structural effect, i.e., utilize of the energy-intensive industries, not only has more explanatory power than efficient use of energy in the changes in energy consumption but also has the most share in the trend of changes in GDP and changes in energy consumption of aforementioned sector. But the share of effective energy consumption expressed in terms of the intensity effect is less. This conclusion suggests that the use of energy-intensive industries has a greater role in total energy consumption changes and decoupling index changes than an inefficient use of energy.
Khalil Ghadimi; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Amadeh; Atefe Taklif
Abstract
Gas supply development and the upward trend of
Abstract
The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate ...
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Gas supply development and the upward trend of
Abstract
The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of natural gas price liberalization on the resumption of the gas supply system in Iran. In order to measure the fluctuation of the natural gas distribution system, in the first stage, Lyapunov's view was calculated by using the Rosen-Einstein method, based on the consumption of natural gas in the household sector during the period from 2005 to 2018. In the next step, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. According to the results of the model, the price of natural gas after the law enforcement of subsidies has led to a reduction in the resilience of the gas supply system; however, before implementing the targeted subsidy policy, the natural gas price has a positive resilience on gas distribution system fluctuations. This could be resulted from the real fall in natural gas prices due to inflation and a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the years after the targeted subsidy law came into force.
Hamid Amadeh; Hossein Tavakolian; mehdi hedayati nia
Abstract
The increasing demand of fossil fuels alongside its environmental pollution necessitates the optimal consumption of the fuels. In cold seasons, natural gas consumption increases and power plants of the country need to substitute their consumed fuel in order to supply electricity. This paper evaluated ...
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The increasing demand of fossil fuels alongside its environmental pollution necessitates the optimal consumption of the fuels. In cold seasons, natural gas consumption increases and power plants of the country need to substitute their consumed fuel in order to supply electricity. This paper evaluated the substitution between consumable fuels in electricity production in six selected regional electricity companies during the years 1389-1386. Cost share equations of conventional fuels in electricity generation were estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) estimator. Using the results of the estimation, equations of the own-and cross-price elasticities of the substitution of different fuels were calculated. According to the results of calculations, all the own price elasticities were negative and cross price elasticities were positive. The substitute elasticity between natural gas and gasoil was 1.56 and between natural gas and mazut was 1.3. Also, using the calculated elasticities, the substitution of fuels was applied with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions. The application results showed that the substitution of mazut with natural gas would reduce CO2 emissions, but the substitution of gasoil with natural gas would increase CO2 emissions.
Esfandiar Jahangard; Ali Asghar Banoe; Sajjad Barkhordari; Hamid Amadeh; amir doudabi nezhad
Abstract
Environmental taxes, including carbon and energy price taxes, are one of the most crucial means of market-based approach of reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and are widely used around the world In the present research, the effects of enforcing these two tax policies are assessed in two scenarios of ...
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Environmental taxes, including carbon and energy price taxes, are one of the most crucial means of market-based approach of reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and are widely used around the world In the present research, the effects of enforcing these two tax policies are assessed in two scenarios of redistribution and non-redistribution of the overall tax incomes between households (in sum, four scenarios), based on the CGE model. These two taxes make different impacts on relative prices of energy carriers. Accordingly, they have different economic effects which remained unexamined in previous researches. The results of present study, therefore, would make a clearer anticipation of the future policies effects, which will be implemented to meet the international environmental commitments of Iran. The results of simulations indicate that both taxes lead to emission reduction but carbon taxes are more efficient than energy taxes, because the former requires less amount of taxes, whereas the level of emission reduction is the same. If there’s no redistribution of tax incomes, both kind of taxes decrease the welfare and real consumption budget of households, but in case of redistribution, these indexes will increase. In all scenarios, GDP, decrease and consumer price increase will increase in different amounts and employment in 3 scenarios increase. Based on the findings of present research, enforcing the carbon tax policy, concomitant to tax incomes redistribution, are among the appropriate policies designed to reduce the greenhouse gas emission and meet the international commitments of Iran.
Hamid Amadeh; Alireza Ghafari; Zakaria Farajzadeh
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 33-62
Abstract
The second step of subsidies targeting program which is coupled with energy price reform, has multiple effects on the economy. One of the major effects is the welfare and environmental changes in the country. This study intends to analyze the environmental and welfare effects of energy price reform using ...
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The second step of subsidies targeting program which is coupled with energy price reform, has multiple effects on the economy. One of the major effects is the welfare and environmental changes in the country. This study intends to analyze the environmental and welfare effects of energy price reform using a general equilibrium model. There are two scenarios of income redistribution. First, redistribution of whole income among households equally and second, redistribution of income in accordance with the subsidies targeting law. In this model, Iran's economy consists of 26 section. Households are considered separately for urban and rural in income deciles. Production factors, includs skilled labor, unskilled labor and capital. Energy carriers include electricity, natural gas, LPG, petrol, kerosene, fuel oil, and gasoline. The first scenario, leads to about 16 percent welfare increase in urban households and 53 percent to rural household. The second scenario, provides welfare increase about 3 percent for urban households and 25 percent to rural household. Considering environmental effects it is found that energy price reform is effective in reducing emissions, in total.
Hamid Amadeh
Volume 2, Issue 8 , October 2013, , Pages 21-43
Abstract
Due to importance of energy factor in agricultural sector and considering the increasing energy price in recent years, analysis of energy demand is very important. In this paper in order to analyse agricultural energy demand, OLS, FMOLS and Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach ...
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Due to importance of energy factor in agricultural sector and considering the increasing energy price in recent years, analysis of energy demand is very important. In this paper in order to analyse agricultural energy demand, OLS, FMOLS and Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach has been used and results of these methods have been compared. Data on energy price index, energy consumption and agricultural value added for priod 1355-1388 were used. Results showed that long run and short run price elasticity of energy consumtion are between -0.3 to -0.327 and -0.09 to -0.102 respectively. Also income elasticity of energy consumption estimated egual to 0.7. Results of OLS estimation of Log-Log model, Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach are very similar. Because of price inelasticity of energy consumption especially in the shortrun, price policies are not likely to reduce energy consumtion considerably. Price policies can be more effective in the longrun, but this is subject to improvemeats in the energy consumption technology.
